The 2025 monsoon forecast for Pakistan presents a mixed weather outlook, with northern and northeastern regions expected to receive more rainfall than the southern parts of the country.
This projection is based on new data released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Between June and September, cities such as Islamabad, Peshawar, and Faisalabad are likely to experience moderate to heavy monsoon showers.
Islamabad could receive as much as 893 millimetres of rainfall, while Peshawar and Faisalabad are projected to see 202 mm and 326 mm respectively.
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In contrast, central and southern areas, including Nawabshah and parts of southwest Balochistan, are forecast to receive much lower rainfall—around 165 mm.
Overall, most regions in Pakistan are expected to get between 100 to 500 mm of rain, with northeastern zones potentially reaching up to 1,000 mm.
The forecast suggests that rainfall levels will be normal to slightly above normal in the northern half of the country, especially during July, which is expected to be the wettest month of the season.
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While the increased rainfall could benefit agriculture and help replenish water reservoirs in the north, it also raises the risk of urban flooding, particularly in Islamabad and nearby areas.
On the other hand, the drier forecast for the south means drought conditions may persist in those regions.
Regional Rainfall Forecast (June–Sept 2025)
| City/Region | Forecast Rainfall (mm) |
|---|---|
| Islamabad | 893 mm |
| Peshawar | 202 mm |
| Faisalabad | 326 mm |
| Nawabshah | 165 mm |
| Southwest Balochistan | 165 mm |
| Northeast Pakistan | 500–1,000 mm |
| Most other areas | 100–500 mm |