A groundbreaking study using advanced AI and satellite imagery has revealed a critical shortage of green spaces in Karachi, putting the city’s residents at severe risk from climate change and public health threats. Researchers from Aga Khan University (AKU) and New York University have found that Karachi’s green space per capita is less than half the World Health Organization’s recommended minimum, exposing a stark environmental crisis.
The study, which utilized cutting edge AI technology to map Karachi’s greenery with unprecedented detail, found that the city has only 4.17 square meters of green space per person, compared to the WHO’s recommended 9 square meters. This shortfall exacerbates the urban heat island effect, worsens air pollution, and creates significant health disparities, with lower-income communities bearing the brunt of the environmental burden.
“Cities play a vital role in shaping public health, and their green spaces are more than just scenic escapes—they are essential for human well-being and environmental resilience,” said Dr Zainab Samad, Chair, Department of Medicine at AKU and co-author of the study. “Trees, in particular, serve as natural protectors against extreme heat, act as carbon sinks, and help manage urban flooding. With rising temperatures and increasing climate challenges, urban planning must prioritize green spaces, not just for their ecological benefits but also for their beauty and the shelter they provide to both people and wildlife.”
By leveraging deep learning on high-resolution satellite data, researchers demonstrated how AI-driven analysis outperforms traditional vegetation indices. They enhanced AI architectures and introduced a process called ‘green augmentation’—training the system with varied images of vegetation under different lighting and seasonal conditions—improving vegetation detection accuracy by 13.4%. This advancement provides policymakers with a more precise tool for assessing and expanding green infrastructure. The findings also highlight Karachi’s greenery deficit and its direct link to rising land surface temperatures, increasing the city’s vulnerability to climate change.
“Our study demonstrates how we can utilise AI to make a big impact; for faster, more precise, and powerful city planning efforts,” said Rumi Chunara, Associate Professor and Director, Centre for Health Data Science at New York University. “By tracking green space distribution, we can guide smarter urban growth, monitor changes over time, and create places wherein people can thrive alongside nature. Expanding this research across Pakistan has the potential to reshape urban planning for a healthier, more sustainable future.”
The researchers are urging city planners, policymakers, and civil society organizations to take immediate action, including scaling up tree-planting initiatives, implementing urban reforestation programmes, revitalizing parks, and integrating green infrastructure into urban expansion. The future of Karachi’s liveability depends on decisive, science-backed urban planning. The time to act is now.
